Why the Next Three Years Could Be the Best Time to Build a Serious Art Collection. Analysis: Hurun global Art List 2025

1. THE OPPORTUNITY

The Hurun Global Art List 2025 just dropped, and Rupert Hoogewerf, Hurun's Chairman, made a prediction worth paying attention to: "The global art market should pick up within the next three years."

Here's why: The number of billionaires in the world just hit a record 3,400—the highest ever. Half are from the USA and China.

The art market recalibrated in 2024, but that created something valuable: clarity. When markets contract, quality wins and opportunities open up for collectors who understand what they're building.

2. WHAT 30 YEARS IN MUSEUMS TAUGHT ME

I've spent three decades watching how serious collectors and institutions build in different market conditions. The best collections aren't built when everything's hot and competitive—they're built when the market gets strategic.

The Hurun data confirms it: 18 artists on this year's list saw sales increase. Twelve were new faces. The market didn't disappear—it concentrated around quality.

As Head of Art & Philanthropy at Hurun Australia, what I'm seeing is encouraging: collectors aren't pulling back. They're being more intentional about what they collect and why.

3. THE KUSAMA MILESTONE

Yayoi Kusama, 96, just became the first woman and first Asian to top the Hurun Art List with $159 million in auction sales. Historic.

Even more significant: Kusama has been in the Hurun Top 10 for six consecutive years. So have Gerhard Richter, David Hockney, and Yoshitomo Nara. These are artists with genuine cultural staying power.

David Hockney's sales rose 60% year-on-year. Ed Ruscha up 19%. When collectors get selective, they buy artists with proven institutional validation and long-term cultural resonance.

4. THE CHINA CONSISTENCY

China has eight artists on the Hurun Art List 2025. Over six years, 20 Chinese artists have made the global list, averaging 10 per year.

Four artists—Liu Ye, Zhou Chunya, Fan Zeng, and Zeng Fanzhi—have been on the list for six consecutive years. Remarkable consistency.

75% of Chinese artists on the list work in oil painting, building global collector bases by working in Western mediums while maintaining Chinese cultural intelligence.

For collectors in Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong navigating dual identities, this matters. Chinese contemporary art is a global conversation with proven staying power.

5. THE EMERGING OPPORTUNITY

Five years ago, there were zero artists under 35 on the list. This year there are two. Nine artists are aged 50 or under—at the beginning of serious institutional careers, not the end.

Average age: 68 years old. Translation: massive opportunity to identify artists in their 40s and 50s building the kind of staying power that puts them on this list in five years.

I've watched this cycle three times: markets recalibrate, then 3-5 years later a new generation breaks through and early collectors benefit significantly.

6. WHY THE NEXT THREE YEARS MATTER

Record wealth concentration meets strategic collecting. That's an opportunity for collectors who understand what they're building.

Yes, the market recalibrated in 2024. But serious collectors didn't disappear—they got more intentional. Artists with genuine quality held strong or grew. The market is working exactly as it should: rewarding quality, consistency, and cultural significance.

Rupert Hoogewerf's forecast isn't speculation—it's pattern recognition from tracking global wealth for 25 years. The wealth is there. The collector base is there. The market is recalibrating toward quality.

For collectors building now: you're entering at a strategic moment. Not fighting overheated auctions. Building with intention, focusing on quality, and positioning for the next cycle.

The best collections are built when serious collectors get selective—exactly where we are right now.